Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission
The Department of Administrative and Financial Services provides staff support for the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), an independent group of economists who forecast Maine's economy. The CEFC meets twice a year to update its economic forecast, which is used in establishing the revenue forecast for the State. The Commission forecasts four key indicators: wage and salary employment, personal income (by component), the Consumer Price Index, and corporate profits.
September 2021 Joint CEFC/RFC Meeting
This meeting will be held virtually on September 17, 2021 from 1-4 PM (Agenda).
Meeting materials:
April 2021
Report:
Final Report of the CEFC - April 1, 2021
Meeting materials:
- Agenda
- Background materials
- Additional background regarding the ARP and Vaccination
- Maine CWRI Labor Market Update
- Maine Revenue Service Update
- OFPR Update
- Economic update
February 2021 Joint CEFC/RFC Meeting
Meeting Materials:
November 2020
Report:
November 1, 2020 Report of the CEFC
October 23, 2020 Forecasting Meeting
November 2020 Background Materials
October 16, 2020 Information Gathering Session
For a full summary and additional materials from this meeting, see below:
Information Gathering Session Summary
Maine Banker's Association Data'
September 2020 Joint CEFC/RFC meeting
Presentation Materials:
- General Fund Balance Summary
- General Fund Closing Transactions
- State Economist Economic Update
- Office of Tax Policy Update
- CWRI update
July 2020 Off-Cycle Forecast Update
Reports
July 1, 2020 Off-Cycle Report of the CEFC
Summary of the June 22, 2020 Information Gathering Session
Meeting Agendas
Information Gathering Session Agenda
Background Materials
July 2020 Economic Background Materials
Handouts from the June 22, 2020 Information Gathering Session Panel:
Broadband
Childcare
Epidemiology
Overall Economic Conditions
Banking
Construction
February 2020
Februrary 2020 CEFC Report (PDF)
CEFC Background Materials February 2020 (PDF)
November 2019
November 2019 CEFC Report (PDF)
CEFC Background Materials November 2019 (PDF)
2019 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
April 2019
CEFC Background Materials April 2019 (PDF)
Special Reports
Stress-Testing Maine General Fund Revenues & Reserves
In accordance with Title 5, Chapter 151-B, Section 1710-G, no later than October 1st of each even-numbered year, the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) and the Revenue Forecasting Committee (RFC) are statutorily required to stress-test sales and individual income taxes based on alternative economic scenarios recommended by the commission in accordance with section 1710-A, subsection 4. The report includes analyses and findings on the stress impact of potential economic recession scenarios on the current General Fund revenue projections of sales and income tax revenues. The report also includes an analysis of the sufficiency of the current level of the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund and an estimate of the reserves in the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund necessary to offset the declines in revenue as a result of potential economic recessions of varying levels of severity.
Current
Past
Revenue Forecasting Committee
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