Economic Forecasting

Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission

The Department of Administrative and Financial Services provides staff support for the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), an independent group of economists who forecast Maine's economy. The CEFC meets twice a year to update its economic forecast, which is used in establishing the revenue forecast for the State. The Commission forecasts four key indicators: wage and salary employment, personal income (by component), the Consumer Price Index, and corporate profits.


April 2021 

Report:

Final Report of the CEFC - April 1, 2021

Meeting materials: 

February 2021 Joint CEFC/RFC Meeting

Agenda

Meeting Materials: 


November 2020 

Report: 

November 1, 2020 Report of the CEFC

October 23, 2020 Forecasting Meeting

Agenda

November 2020 Background Materials

October 16, 2020 Information Gathering Session

For a full summary and additional materials from this meeting, see below: 

Information Gathering Session Summary

Maine Banker's Association Data'

Childcare Data


September 2020 Joint CEFC/RFC meeting 

Presentation Materials:


July 2020 Off-Cycle Forecast Update

Reports

July 1, 2020 Off-Cycle Report of the CEFC

Summary of the June 22, 2020 Information Gathering Session

Meeting Agendas 

Forecasting Meeting Agenda

Information Gathering Session Agenda

Background Materials

July 2020 Economic Background Materials

Handouts from the June 22, 2020 Information Gathering Session Panel:

Broadband

Childcare

Epidemiology

Overall Economic Conditions

Banking

Construction


February 2020 

Februrary 2020 CEFC Report (PDF)

CEFC Background Materials February 2020 (PDF)


November 2019 

November 2019 CEFC Report (PDF)

CEFC Background Materials November 2019 (PDF)

2019 Data Gathering Session (PDF)


April 2019

April 2019 CEFC Report (PDF)

CEFC Background Materials April 2019 (PDF)


Special Reports


Stress-Testing Maine General Fund Revenues & Reserves

In accordance with Title 5, Chapter 151-B, Section 1710-G, no later than October 1st of each even-numbered year, the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) and the Revenue Forecasting Committee (RFC) are statutorily required to stress-test sales and individual income taxes based on alternative economic scenarios recommended by the commission in accordance with section 1710-A, subsection 4.  The report includes analyses and findings on the stress impact of potential economic recession scenarios on the current General Fund revenue projections of sales and income tax revenues. The report also includes an analysis of the sufficiency of the current level of the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund and an estimate of the reserves in the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund necessary to offset the declines in revenue as a result of potential economic recessions of varying levels of severity.

Current

Past


Revenue Forecasting Committee

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