Economic Forecasting

Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission

The Department of Administrative and Financial Services provides staff support for the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), an independent group of economists who forecast Maine's economy. The CEFC meets twice a year to update its economic forecast, which is used in establishing the revenue forecast for the State. The Commission forecasts three key indicators: wage and salary employment, personal income (by component), and the Consumer Price Index.

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Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Background Materials

Prior to each Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) meeting, the Department of Administrative and Financial Services, which staffs the Commission, assembles a set of background materials. These materials summarize the current economic environment and any recent developments since the Commission's past meeting. Special attention is paid to indicators of general economic activity as well as indicators for employment, personal income, and inflation (the Consumer Price Index), which are forecast by the Commission. Additional background may include updates on home prices and sales, heating and crude oil, and other topics of interest.

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Special Data Gathering Sessions

Prior to each fall's forecasting meeting, the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) invites the leaders of a variety of Maine business and industry groups to share economic data and industry-specific information. This on-the-ground perspective provides background to help inform the Commission's forecasting process.

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Stress-Testing Maine General Fund Revenues & Reserves

In accordance with Title 5, Chapter 151-B, Section 1710-G, no later than October 1st of each even-numbered year, the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) and the Revenue Forecasting Committee (RFC) are statutorily required to stress-test sales and individual income taxes based on alternative economic scenarios recommended by the commission in accordance with section 1710-A, subsection 4.  The report includes analyses and findings on the stress impact of potential economic recession scenarios on the current General Fund revenue projections of sales and income tax revenues. The report also includes an analysis of the sufficiency of the current level of the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund and an estimate of the reserves in the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund necessary to offset the declines in revenue as a result of potential economic recessions of varying levels of severity.

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Revenue Forecasting Committee

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