Northern and the OPA Agree on Summer Cost of Gas Rates but Disagree Over the Use of Benchmarks to Evaluate the Accuracy of Northern’s Forecast Model
On April 16, the Commission recommended approval of Northern’s proposed Summer Period Cost of Gas rates for effect beginning May 1 (Docket No. 2026-00034). The typical residential heating customer, using 119 therms in the 2026 Summer Period, will pay a total of $355.71 over the season. This is an increase of $7.54 or 2.2% from the 2025 Summer Period, but 6.88% lower than it would have been under Winter 2025-2026 pricing.
The Commission recommended supporting the load forecasting metrics developed jointly by the OPA and Northern to quantify how accurately Northern predicts the amount of gas customers would use.
Further, the Commission recommended supporting the load forecasting metrics developed jointly by the OPA and Northern to quantify how accurately Northern predicts the amount of gas customers would use which is part of the calculation of the cost of gas factor that Northern is allowed to charge its customers. However, the Commission recommended not to approve the benchmarks proposed by the OPA to identify times when Northern’s model predictions fell outside the range of acceptable accuracy. If the recommended decision is approved, Northern will be required to use the metrics in its forecast analysis beginning with its 2026–2027 Winter Period cost of gas factor filing and for ongoing cost of gas factor proceedings as determined in the 2026–2027 Winter Period proceeding.