August 18, 2023
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 18, 2023
The Employment Situation in Maine - July 2023
Unemployment remained at record lows and labor force participation increased in July. Nonfarm wage and salary jobs decreased following a large upward revision to June estimates. It is not clear at this point the extent to which the rainy pattern may have impacted employment in Maine.
This news release presents estimates derived from two monthly surveys. The Current Population Survey collects information from households on labor force status, including labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The Current Employment Statistics survey collects information from nonfarm employers by industry on the number of jobs, hours worked, and wages paid to individuals on their payrolls. Both surveys are administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Preliminary estimates from the two surveys sometimes diverge in direction or magnitude of change. Annual revisions published each spring tend to bring them in to better alignment.
Statewide Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Estimates
The unemployment rate was a record low 2.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month. Unemployment has been below four percent for 20 consecutive months the third longest period of such low rates. Labor force participation and employment to population rates continued to trend higher in July.
Three-month averages generally provide a better indication of workforce conditions as they smooth some of the variability in sample-based estimates and they reflect revisions for previous months. The 2.4 percent average unemployment rate for May to July is down from 2.6 percent for the three months through April. In that period average labor force participation and employment to population rates increased.
The unemployment rate for Maine was below U.S. and New England 3.5 and 2.7 percent rates for July.
Statewide Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Jobs Estimates
Total nonfarm wage and salary jobs decreased 2,900 in July to 643,200; jobs increased 3,200 in the last 12 months. This follows a large upward revision of 3,000 jobs for June, mostly to leisure and hospitality. Most of the July decrease was in leisure and hospitality and in construction, each of which can be impacted by adverse weather. It was unusually rainy in both June and July. It is not clear at this point the extent to which weather may have impacted the employment situation in Maine.
Looking at three-month averages, which smooth monthly variability, the number of jobs has essentially been unchanged throughout the last eight months. The three-month average through July was 1.3 percentage points higher than the average for calendar year 2019, before the pandemic. Private sector jobs were 1.6 percent higher and government jobs were 0.7 percent lower, mostly in public higher education.
County and Metro Area Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Estimates
On a not seasonally-adjusted basis the statewide unemployment rate was 2.5 percent. Of the 16 counties, rates were at least 0.3 percentage points higher than that in six counties, at least 0.3 points lower than that in six, and close to the average in four. Rates were lowest in Sagadahoc and Hancock and highest in Aroostook counties.
Among the three metro areas of the state, unemployment was below the statewide average in Portland-S. Portland and close to the average in Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn.
(Labor force estimates for substate areas, including unemployment rates, are not seasonally adjusted. Because of this, estimates for a certain month should be compared to the same month in other years and should not be compared to other months.)
Statewide and Metro Area Not Seasonally Adjusted Hours and Earnings Estimates
The private sector workweek averaged 33.8 hours and earnings averaged $29.97 per hour in July. Average hours decreased 0.5 and hourly earnings increased 4.4 percent from a year earlier. Earnings increases were led by a 9.6 percent gain in manufacturing. The workweek was longest in construction and shortest in leisure and hospitality. Earnings were highest in professional and business services and lowest in leisure and hospitality.
Hourly earnings were higher than the statewide average in the Portland-S. Portland metro and lower in Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn.
- This news release is available in a more accessible format here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/news/release.html
- August workforce estimates will be released Tuesday, September 19 at 10 a.m. The data release schedule is here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/releaseDates.html
- Nonfarm jobs data is available here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/ces.html
- Unemployment and labor force data is available here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/laus.html
- Preliminary seasonally-adjusted labor force estimates, including rates (labor force participation, employment, and unemployment rates), and levels (labor force, employed, and unemployed), as well as nonfarm wage and salary job estimates are inexact. Annual revisions (published in March each year) add accuracy. A comparison of 2021 and 2022 revised and previously published estimates is available in this blog - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/2023workforcedata_revisions.pdf
- The 90 percent confidence interval for the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July was between 1.7 and 3.2 percent.
- Nonfarm wage and salary jobs from the payroll survey provide a better indication of changes in employment than resident employment from the household survey. The payroll survey is larger and has smaller margins of error.
- Nonfarm payroll jobs estimates tend to be variable from month to month because the representativeness of reporting employers can differ. Seasonal adjustment is imperfect because weather, the beginning and ending of school semesters, and other events do not always occur with the same timing relative to the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month, which is the survey reference period. This sometimes exacerbates monthly changes in jobs estimates. Users should look to the trend over multiple months rather than the change from one specific month to another. Jobs estimates for the period from April 2022 to September 2023 will be replaced with payroll data in March 2024. Those benchmark revisions usually show less monthly variability than preliminary estimates