The Employment Situation in Maine - January 2024 Bookmark and Share

March 11, 2024

Released: Monday, March 11, 2024 at 10 a.m. Contact: Glenn Mills, 207-530-2079

The Employment Situation in Maine - January 2024

Nonfarm jobs increased to a new high and unemployment was unchanged. These preliminary indications follow annual revisions to data for prior years. In 2023 there were somewhat more jobs than previously estimated, especially in the summer months, and unemployment was modestly lower early and higher later in the year. An article comparing previously published to revised data - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/2024workforcedata_revisions.pdf .

These estimates are derived from two monthly surveys. The Current Population Survey collects information from households on labor force status, including labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The Current Employment Statistics survey collects information from nonfarm employers by industry on the number of wage and salary jobs, hours worked, and wages paid to individuals on their payrolls. Both surveys are administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Preliminary estimates from the two surveys sometimes diverge in direction or magnitude of change. Over extended periods they tend to be more aligned.

Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Labor Force Estimates

The preliminary unemployment rate estimate was unchanged at 3.4 percent. (December's previously reported rate of 3.2 percent was revised up 0.2 points.) The average for the three-month period through January was 0.2 points higher than for the preceding three months through October. This resulted from a small decrease in the employment rate. The decreased employment rate, from the survey of households, is at odds with indications from the larger, more reliable payroll survey of employers, which sometimes occurs over short periods.

Unemployment has been below four percent for 26 consecutive months the second longest such period and below the U.S. average 192 of the last 194 months. It remains well below the long-term average. (The average since the current estimating methodology was adopted in January 1976 is 5.5 percent.)

Unemployment averaged 3.4 percent for New England and 3.7 percent for the U.S. in January. (The U.S. rate for February was 3.9 percent. State rates are released about two weeks after the national rate in 11 months of each year. The exception is for January, which is delayed about three weeks for state annual data revisions.)

Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Nonfarm Jobs Estimates

Preliminary estimates of nonfarm wage and salary jobs increased 1,300 from a month ago and 8,300 from a year ago to 655,400. Jobs reached a new high for the third consecutive month. Nearly two-thirds of the over the year increase was in healthcare and social assistance. The average for the three-month period through January was 2,700 more than for the preceding three months.

Not Seasonally Adjusted County and Metro Area Labor Force Estimates

On a not seasonally adjusted basis the statewide unemployment rate was 3.8 percent. Rates were at least 0.3 percentage points higher than that in seven counties, at least 0.3 points lower than that in three, and close to the average in six. Rates were lowest in Sagadahoc and highest in Washington counties.

Among the three metro areas of the state, unemployment was below the statewide average in Portland-S. Portland and close to the average in Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn

(Labor force estimates for substate areas, including unemployment rates, are not seasonally adjusted. Because of this, estimates for a certain month should be compared to the same month in other years and should not be compared to other months in the same or other years.)

Not Seasonally Adjusted Statewide and Metro Area Hours and Earnings Estimates

The private sector workweek averaged 32.8 hours and earnings averaged $31.33 per hour in January. Average hours decreased 0.8 and hourly earnings increased 4.7 percent from a year earlier. Earnings increases were led by a 12 percent gain in construction. The workweek was longest in construction and shortest in leisure and hospitality. Earnings were highest in professional and business services and lowest in leisure and hospitality.

Hourly earnings were higher than the statewide average in the Portland-S. Portland metro and slightly lower in the Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn metros.

NOTES:

  1. Preliminary seasonally adjusted labor force estimates, including rates (labor force participation, employment, and unemployment rates), and levels (labor force, employed, and unemployed), as well as nonfarm wage and salary job estimates are inexact. Annual revisions (published in March each year) add accuracy. A comparison of 2022 and 2023 revised and previously published estimates is available in this blog - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/2024workforcedata_revisions.pdf .
  2. The 90 percent confidence interval for the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January was between 2.7 and 4.1 percent.
  3. Nonfarm wage and salary jobs from the payroll survey provide a better indication of changes in employment than resident employment from the household survey. The payroll survey is larger and has smaller margins of error.
  4. Nonfarm payroll jobs estimates tend to be variable from month to month because the representativeness of reporting employers can differ. Seasonal adjustment is imperfect because weather, the beginning and ending of school semesters, and other events do not always occur with the same timing relative to the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month, which is the survey reference period. This sometimes exacerbates monthly changes in jobs estimates. Users should look to the trend over multiple months rather than the change from one specific month to another. Jobs estimates for the period from April 2023 to September 2024 will be replaced with payroll data in March 2025. Those benchmark revisions usually show less monthly variability than previously published estimates.