October 20, 2017
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 20, 2017
Contact: Glenn Mills 207-621-5192
AUGUSTA – As tourism season began to wind down and the school year began, labor market conditions remained tight throughout much of the state.
Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Data
Household Survey Estimates – The preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 3.7 percent for September was little changed from 3.8 percent for August and 4.0 percent one year ago. The number of unemployed was down 1,500 over the year to 26,100. At 24 months, this is the second longest period in more than 40 years that the unemployment rate has been 4.0 percent or less.
The U.S. preliminary unemployment rate of 4.2 percent for September was down slightly from 4.4 percent for August and down from 4.9 percent one year ago. The New England unemployment rate averaged 3.9 percent.
September unemployment rate estimates for other states in the region were 2.7 percent in New Hampshire, 2.9 percent in Vermont, 3.9 percent in Massachusetts, 4.2 percent in Rhode Island, and 4.6 percent in Connecticut.
The employment to population ratio estimate of 61.8 percent remained above the U.S. average of 60.4 percent.
Payroll Survey Estimates – The preliminary nonfarm payroll jobs estimate was up 3,400 from one year ago to 621,200 for September. The largest job gains continued to be in the healthcare, construction, and hospitality sectors.
Not Seasonally Adjusted Substate Data
The not seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate estimate of 3.0 percent for September was down from 3.4 percent one year ago. Among counties, the lowest rate was 2.5 percent in Cumberland and Sagadahoc and the highest was 4.8 percent in Washington.
The unemployment rate was below the statewide average in the Portland-South Portland (2.5 percent) metro area and close to the average in the Lewiston-Auburn (2.9 percent) and Bangor (3.1 percent) metro areas.
October estimates will be released on Friday, November 17 (Data Release Schedule: http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/releaseDates.html ).
This release is available at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/news/release.html .
Labor force and unemployment data is available at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/laus1.html .
Nonfarm payroll jobs data is available at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/ces1.html .
Monthly workforce estimates are cooperatively produced and released by the Maine Department of Labor, Center for Workforce Research and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Preliminary labor force estimates, including rates (labor force participation, employment, and unemployment rates), and levels (labor force, employed, and unemployed) tend to move in a direction for several months and then reverse course. Those directional trends are largely driven by a smoothing procedure and may not indicate a change in underlying workforce conditions. Annual revisions (published in March each year) tend to moderate or eliminate those directional patterns. A comparison of 2016 preliminary and revised unemployment rate estimates is available at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/2016workforcedata_revisions.pdf .
The 90 percent confidence interval for statewide unemployment rates in 2017 is 0.7 percentage points above or below the published estimate each month.
To assess employment growth, we recommend looking at nonfarm jobs from the payroll survey rather than resident employment from the household survey. The payroll survey is larger, has smaller margins of error, and is subject to smaller revisions. More on the differences in accuracy of the two measures is at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/imprecise_data.pdf .
Nonfarm payroll jobs estimates tend to be volatile from month to month because there is variability in the sample of reporting employers and their representativeness for the universe of all employers. Additionally, seasonal adjustment is imperfect because weather, the beginning and ending of school semesters and holidays, and other events do not always occur with the same timing, which can exacerbate monthly volatility. Users should look to the trend over multiple months rather than the change from one specific month to another. Estimates for the period from October 2016 to September 2017 will be replaced with actual payroll data in March 2018. Those benchmark revisions are likely to show less volatility than preliminary estimates.