The Employment Situation in Maine - December 2024 Bookmark and Share

January 28, 2025

Released: Tuesday, January 28 at 10 a.m.

Contact: Glenn Mills, 207-530-2079

The Employment Situation in Maine - December 2024

Nonfarm jobs and unemployment were little changed in the month.

These estimates are derived from two monthly surveys. The Current Population Survey collects information from households on labor force status, including labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The Current Employment Statistics survey collects information from nonfarm employers by industry on the number of wage and salary jobs, hours worked, and wages paid to individuals on their payrolls. Both surveys are administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Preliminary estimates from the two surveys sometimes diverge in direction or magnitude of change. Over extended periods they tend to be more aligned.

Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Labor Force Estimates The 3.2 percent preliminary unemployment rate was little changed from 3.1 percent in November. Preliminary seasonally adjusted rates in 2024 followed a pattern similar to each of the prior two years, trending lower through spring, stabilizing at annual lows in summer, and moving higher thereafter. A consistent pattern of lows in summer and highs in winter is expected for rates that are not adjusted for seasonality. Though this pattern has occurred with data that is seasonally adjusted each of the last three years, it is not a usual pattern that should be expected to persist. As described in the following Note on Preliminary Unemployment Estimates, annual revisions smooth these patterns. Seasonally and not seasonally adjusted estimates are published here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/laus1.html .

Unemployment has been below four percent for 37 months the second longest such period and below the U.S. average for all but two months for 17 years. The rate continued to be below the long-term average of 5.4 percent for the state since January 1976, when the current methodology was adopted.

Unemployment averaged 3.6 percent for New England and 4.1 percent for the U.S. in December.

Note on Preliminary Unemployment Estimates: They should be considered in the context of whether they are below, near, or above historical or U.S. averages, rather than if they are up or down a few tenths of a point from some other month. The household survey sample they are derived from is large enough for direct estimates for the nation. For states it is much smaller and statistical modeling - https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm is used to prevent large single-month changes that may overstate the magnitude or the direction of changes in labor market conditions.

One result of this is that preliminary unemployment rates for Maine tend to follow an undulating pattern, moving in one direction for several months and then the other through the course of a year. Revisions, published annually in March, have consistently smoothed these patterns. Upward or downward changes in preliminary unemployment or labor force participation rates often are not as indicative of improvement or deterioration in conditions as may appear. Though rates for many months will change when revised, unemployment rates for the early and latter parts of 2024 certainly will remain well below the long-term average.

Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Nonfarm Jobs Estimates Nonfarm wage and salary jobs were little changed in the month; they increased 2,000 over the last year, an average of 200 per month. Most of those gains occurred last winter. Exceptions to this were the healthcare and social assistance and the leisure and hospitality sectors, which had gains later in the year. Those were partially offset by small decreases in retail trade and in professional and business services, primarily since spring.

Note on Preliminary Nonfarm Jobs Estimates: Preliminary estimates of nonfarm jobs from the payroll survey of employers tend to provide a better indication of the magnitude and direction of change than labor force and unemployment estimates from the household survey. The payroll survey is much larger and revisions to jobs estimates tend to be smaller.

Not Seasonally Adjusted County and Metro Area Labor Force Estimates On a not seasonally adjusted basis the statewide unemployment rate was 3.6 percent. Rates were at least 0.3 percentage points higher than that in nine counties, at least 0.3 points lower than that in four, and close to the average in three. The lowest rates were in southern and central areas and the highest were in the north.

Among the three metro areas of the state, unemployment was below the statewide average in Portland-S. Portland and close to the average in Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn.

(Labor force estimates for substate areas, including unemployment rates, are not seasonally adjusted. Because of this, estimates for a certain month should be compared to the same month in other years and should not be compared to other months in the same or other years.)

Not Seasonally Adjusted Statewide and Metro Area Hours and Earnings Estimates The private sector workweek averaged 33.5 hours and earnings averaged $32.34 per hour in December. Average hours were little changed and hourly earnings increased 3.8 percent from a year ago. The workweek was longest in construction and shortest in leisure and hospitality. Earnings were highest in professional and business services and lowest in leisure and hospitality. Hourly earnings were higher than the statewide average in the Portland-S. Portland metro and slightly lower in the Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn metros.

This news release is available in a more accessible format here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/news/release.html .

Due to annual data revisions, release of January 2025 workforce estimates will be delayed until Monday, March 17 at 10 a.m. Revised statewide data for prior years, including 2024 annual averages, will be published Wednesday, March 5. The data release schedule is here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/releaseDates.html .

Unemployment and labor force data is available here - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/laus.html .

NOTES:

  1. Preliminary seasonally adjusted labor force estimates, including rates (labor force participation, employment, and unemployment rates), and levels (labor force, employed, and unemployed), as well as nonfarm wage and salary job estimates are inexact. Annual revisions (published in March each year) add accuracy. A comparison of 2022 and 2023 revised and previously published estimates is available in this blog - https://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/2024workforcedata_revisions.pdf .

  2. The 90 percent confidence interval for the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December was between 2.5 and 3.9 percent.

  3. Nonfarm wage and salary jobs from the payroll survey provide a better indication of changes in employment than resident employment from the household survey. The payroll survey is larger and has smaller margins of error.

  4. Nonfarm payroll jobs estimates tend to be variable from month to month because the representativeness of reporting employers can differ. Seasonal adjustment is imperfect because weather, the beginning and ending of school semesters, and other events do not always occur with the same timing relative to the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month, which is the survey reference period. This sometimes exacerbates monthly changes in jobs estimates. Users should look to the trend over multiple months rather than the change from one specific month to another. Jobs estimates for the period from April 2023 to September 2024 will be replaced with payroll data in March 2025. Those benchmark revisions usually show less monthly variability than previously published estimates.

Supporting documents

Graphics for the December 2024 Report (Word)