Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission
The Department of Administrative and Financial Services provides staff support for the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), an independent group of economists who forecast Maine's economy. The CEFC meets twice a year to update its economic forecast, which is used in establishing the revenue forecast for the State. The Commission forecasts four key indicators: wage and salary employment, personal income (by component), the Consumer Price Index, and corporate profits.
- February 2024
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Report:
Meeting Materials and Updates:
- Agenda
- Background Materials
- Economic Update
- Labor Update
- Revenue Update
- November 2023
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Report:
Meeting Materials and Updates:
- Agenda
- Background Materials
- Economic Update
- Labor Update
- Revenue Update
Information Gathering Session:
- September 2023 | Joint CEFC/RFC Meeting
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Meeting Materials:
- April 2023
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Report:
Final Report of the CEFC: April 1, 2023
Meeting Materials:
- November 2022
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Report:
Final Report of the CEFC: November 1, 2022
Meeting Materials:
Information Gathering Session:
- September 2022 Joint CEFC/RFC Meeting
- February 2022
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Report:
Final Report of the CEFC: February 1, 2022
Meeting materials:
- November 2021
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Report:
Final Report of the CEFC: November 1, 2021
Meeting materials:
Information Gathering Session documents:
- September 2021 Joint CEFC/RFC Meeting
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Meeting materials:
- April 2021
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Final Report of the CEFC - April 1, 2021
Meeting materials:
- February 2021 Joint CEFC/RFC Meeting
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Meeting Materials:
- November 2020
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Report:
November 1, 2020 Report of the CEFC
October 23, 2020 Forecasting Meeting
November 2020 Background Materials
October 16, 2020 Information Gathering Session
For a full summary and additional materials from this meeting, see below:
Information Gathering Session Summary
- September 2020 Joint CEFC/RFC meeting
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Presentation Materials:
- July 2020 Off-Cycle Forecast Update
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Reports
July 1, 2020 Off-Cycle Report of the CEFC
Summary of the June 22, 2020 Information Gathering Session
Meeting Agendas
Information Gathering Session Agenda
Background Materials
July 2020 Economic Background Materials
Handouts from the June 22, 2020 Information Gathering Session Panel:
Broadband
Childcare
Epidemiology
Overall Economic Conditions
Banking
Construction
- February 2020
- November 2019
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November 2019 CEFC Report (PDF)
- April 2019
- Special Reports
- Stress-Testing Maine General Fund Revenues & Reserves
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In accordance with Title 5, Chapter 151-B, Section 1710-G, no later than October 1st of each even-numbered year, the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) and the Revenue Forecasting Committee (RFC) are statutorily required to stress-test sales and individual income taxes based on alternative economic scenarios recommended by the commission in accordance with section 1710-A, subsection 4. The report includes analyses and findings on the stress impact of potential economic recession scenarios on the current General Fund revenue projections of sales and income tax revenues. The report also includes an analysis of the sufficiency of the current level of the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund and an estimate of the reserves in the Maine Budget Stabilization Fund necessary to offset the declines in revenue as a result of potential economic recessions of varying levels of severity.
Current
Past
- Revenue Forecasting Committee
- Archived Content (2018 and older)
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Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission:
- November 2018 CEFC Report (PDF)
- February 2018 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2017 CEFC Report (PDF)
- April 2017 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2016 post-election follow-up (PDF)
- November 2016 CEFC Report (PDF)
- February 2016 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2015 CEFC Report (PDF)
- April 2015 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2014 CEFC Report (PDF)
- February 2014 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2013 CEFC Report (PDF)
- April 2013 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2012 CEFC Report (PDF)
- February 2012 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2011 CEFC Report (PDF)
- April 2011 CEFC Report (PDF)
- November 2010 CEFC Report (PDF)
- February 2010 CEFC Report (PDF)
Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Background Materials
- October 2018 Background Materials (PDF)
- January 2018 Background Materials (PDF)
- October 2017 Background Materials (PDF)
- March 2017 Background Materials (PDF)
- October 2016 Background Materials (PDF)
- January 2016 Background Materials (PDF)
- October 2015 Background Materials (PDF)
- March 2015 Background Materials (2015)
- October 2014 CEFC Background Materials (PDF)
- January 2014 CEFC Background Materials (PDF)
- October 2013 CEFC Background Materials (PDF)
- March 2013 CEFC Background Materials (PDF)
- January 2012 CEFC Background Materials (PDF)
- October 2012 CEFC Background Materials (PDF)
- October 2011 CEFC Background Materials (PDF)
Special Data Gathering Sessions
- 2018 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
- 2017 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
- 2016 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
- 2015 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
- 2014 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
- 2013 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
- 2012 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
- 2011 Data Gathering Session (PDF)
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