Date:
Maine’s Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC) released its February 1, 2026, report updating the state’s economic outlook through 2029 and extending its forecast out to 2031. The Commission also identified two hypothetical recession scenarios of varying severity that will be used later this year to stress-test state revenues.
The Commission’s discussion focused on Maine’s demographic trends and labor force dynamics, including the effects of an aging population. Members also discussed affordability pressures, consumer spending, and the potential impact of artificial intelligence on productivity.
Key updates include:
- Employment growth was revised downward in the near term. Based on updated data from the Maine Department of Labor, job growth was lowered for 2025 and 2026. The previously projected zero-growth outlook for 2029 was extended through 2031.
- Inflation expectations were revised upward later in the forecast. Inflation for 2025 was 2.6%, slightly below the Commission’s prior forecast. The CEFC revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2027 through 2029 and extended the 2029 forecast of 2.3% through 2031.
- Wage and salary income growth was revised downward later in the forecast. Growth was lowered for 2027 through 2029, with new forecasts for 3.3% in 2030 and 3.1% in 2031.