From: Steve Clark [mailto:clarkbooks@metrocast.net] 
Sent: Wednesday, July 25, 2007 5:03 PM
To: Giffen, Alec
Subject: Requested Information

Alec,  

At the WP Task Force meeting last Friday, after my presentation, one of the committee members wanted to know where I came up with the figure for the national average capacity factor.   I have checked with several sources on this to make sure I am accurate and her is the best available.  Would you be kind enough to forward this to all the committee members as this is a very important, possibly the most important consideration regarding consideration of wind power projects.   This is so because, as you know, we have to weigh the costs of such projects, against their presumed benefits.  

The best source of determining the output of a given wind power cluster of turbines anywhere in the United States, is from examining the performance of such wind turbines already in operation.  This information is available through the US Department of Energy.  They require all companies using wind turbines in our country to send monthly and yearly summaries on Wind Turbine performance.  

This is reported on DOE Form EIA, Form 906.  The last totaled year we have is 2005.  The 2006 totals may be out soon.  

The 2005 totals show the average "capacity factor" for the US as a whole at 29%.  The eastern US actually is less than this as the reports will show.  

By comparison, the Maine Mountain Power LLC estimated the Redington-Black Nubble project to have a CF of 33.6%, well above the eastern seaboard estimate.  

During the LURC hearing on the project, MMP provided no supporting evidence to establish how this projected figure was calculated.  

We have learned that WP developers sometimes overestimate this key factor in order to project a higher output, thus making it more attractive to investors.  Whether this was the case here is not known, as no information on their estimates was provided to LURC or the public [and unfortunately non of the LURC staff or commissioners asked them for it].  

Thanks for your interest in this very important issue.  

Steve Clark.