BOF 000 FGUS71 KGYX 201818 ESFGYX MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-211600- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 200 PM EST FRI MAR 20 2009 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK... INTERIM SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL. ...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE... AS IS USUAL IN SPRING...LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. BELOW NORMAL ONE DAY AND THEN 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT. NIGHTS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY COLD THOUGH AND THIS HAS HELPED TO SLOWLY MELT THE SNOWPACK. THE WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEKS APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY COLLING IT DOWN SOMEWHAT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. IN THE LONGER TERM IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL WIN OUT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE END OF MARCH AND EARLY APRIL COULD BE STORMY... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT... ...NEW HAMPSHIRE... ...SNOW DEPTH... ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MELT AWAY AND LARGE AREAS OF BARE GROUND ARE APPEARING IN OPEN AREAS. MOST SPOTS LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE REPORTING 10 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SULLIVAN AND WESTERN MERRIMACK COUNTIES WHERE ABOUT 1 FOOT OF SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS ON THE CONNECTICUT RIVER SIDE OF GRAFTON COUNTY ARE REPORTING BARE GROUND. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...1.5 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW STILL BLANKETS THE GROUND ABOVE 1500 FEET. FOR INSTANCE...AS OF THIS MORNING...MOOSE FALLS IN FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORTED 38 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...SECOND CONNECTICUT LAKE REPORTED 34 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND DIAMOND POND 33 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT... ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AS LITTLE AS A TRACE TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES BELOW 1000 FEET. ABOVE 1000 FEET IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 INCHES. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE RUNNING...ON AVERAGE...BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES BUT THOSE AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOVE 10 INCHES OVER 1500 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR LATE MARCH. ...MAINE... ...SNOW DEPTH... ALONG COASTAL MAINE AND PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES... LARGE BARE SPOTS ARE SHOWING UP. FARTHER NORTH TO THE FOOTHILLS SOME BARE SPOTS ARE SHOWING UP IN FARM FIELDS AND ANY LOCATION WHERE TREES ARE ABSENT. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF MIDCOAST AND SOUTHWEST MAINE SNOW DEPTH RANGES FOR JUST A TRACE TO ABOUT 6 INCHES. FROM THE INTERIOR OF MAINE TO THE FOOTHILLS...SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET. ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 18 TO 30 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXIST ABOVE 1500 FEET. SNOW DEPTH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT... ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MAINE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM LITTLE IF ANY TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST BY 5 OR SO MILES SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT INCREASES TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES. FURTHER INLAND TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 5 AND 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS... AS OF MARCH 19 RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 27 PERCENT FULL WHICH WAS 10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN WERE 46 PERCENT FULL WHICH WAS 13 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF MARCH 14 THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX INDICATED VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS OF MARCH 19 SOIL MOISTURE WAS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ONE WELL IN WESTERN MAINE WAS REPORTING RECORD LEVEL FOR MARCH. WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... RIVER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ICE IS BEGINNING TO ROT IN PLACE DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE. FROM CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE SOUTH...ICE MAY NOT BE A FACTOR THIS SPRING IF CONDITIONS LIKE THIS CONTINUE. IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ICE IS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET THICK BUT EVEN THERE IT IS BEGINNING TO ROT. IN WESTERN MAINE ICE THICKNESS IS ALSO ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET THICK. IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THE ICE IS STILL FAIRLY HARD. SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST ICE IS ROTTING QUICKLY. ...IN CONCLUSION... BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...NEAR NORMAL SNOWPACK AND A ROTTING ICE COVER...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. CURRENTLY WE ARE EXPERIENCING PERFECT WEATHER FOR SLOWLY MELTING THE SNOWPACK...MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL RISE IN RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS DIURNALLY. THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK HOWEVER...THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MELT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE SNOWPACK LAST INTO APRIL IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE MAJOR RIVERS. WEATHER TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE PROCEED THROUGH MARCH. THE FARTHER INTO MARCH WE GO WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK THE MORE AT RISK WE ARE FOR A RAPID WARMUP COINCIDING WITH A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING. ANOTHER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 3. $$ TFH EOF