BOF 000 FGUS71 KCAR 211323 ESFCAR MEZ001>006-010-011-029>032-0211800- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 800 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008 ...WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... THIS IS THE EIGHTH WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR 2008...ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU...MAINE. THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE...FROM THE SAINT JOHN THROUGH THE PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS...AND NORMAL DOWNEAST. INCREASED FLOWS LATE LAST WEEK AND LAST WEEKEND CAUSED NORTHERN MAINE'S RIVER ICE TO RUN...AND SEVERAL ICE JAMS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR EPISODES OF FLOODING. ...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE... THE PAST TWO WEEKS WERE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED IN TERMS OF THE MELTING THE YEARS EXTRAORDINARY SNOWPACK. WARM SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS WERE TAILOR MADE FOR AN ORDERLY FRESHET. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH HAVE AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS COMBINATION HAS ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT RUN-OFF INTO AREA RIVERS WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE 6-14 DAY FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLING FOR PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DECIMATED BY THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER. OBSERVERS THAT MEASURE IN EXPOSED AREAS REPORT ZERO TO 6 INCHES OF REMAINING SNOW...WHILE THE MORE PROTECTED AREAS REPORT GENERALLY 1 OR 2 FEET OF SNOW DEPTH. THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN ALLAGASH...FOR INSTANCE...HAS REPORTED LOOSING NEARLY 30 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE APRIL 1ST WHILE OBSERVATIONS NEAR ELLSWORTH HAVE BEEN ZEROED OUT SINCE APRIL 8TH. ...SOIL CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY... AS A RULE...GROUND WATER LEVELS AT THE REGIONS WATER MONITORING STATIONS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AT FORT KENT...MILLINOCKET AND CALAIS. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... RIVER LEVELS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE DOWNEAST COASTAL BASINS...WHERE NORMAL CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS IS TO SAY THAT AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SNOWMELT RUN-OFF WERE RUNNING HIGH. IN THE SAINT JOHN RIVER BASIN...AN ICE JAM THAT HAD BEEN LOCKED IN PLACE AT THE DICKEY BRIDGE IN THE TOWN OF ALLAGASH EARLY ON APRIL 19TH EXCEEDED FLOOD STAGE AT AROUND 400 PM EDT. THE RIVER LEVEL ROSE FROM AROUND 24 FEET AT 400 PM...TO NEARLY 29 FEET (4 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE) IN ONE-AND-ONE-HALF HOURS. AT THIS TIME...RIVER ICE WAS PUSHED OUT OF THE RIVER CHANNEL TO A DEPTH OF 10 FEET ONTO STATE ROUTE 161...AND THE MAINE WARDEN SERVICE REPORTED THAT FLOOD WATERS SURROUNDED SEVERAL RESIDENCES TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT ONE FOOT. THIS ICE THEN RELEASED DOWNSTREAM...CREATING ANOTHER MASSIVE JAM THAT STRETCHED FROM SAVAGE ISLAND NEAR ST. JOHN PLANTATION BACK TO THE ALLAGASH TOWN LINE...A DISTANCE OF NEARLY 15 MILES. THIS MASSIVE JAM RELEASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SENDING A FLOE OF ICE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH FORT KENT...MADAWASKA AND VAN BUREN...SPILLING SOME RIVER WATER INTO THE FLOOD PLAIN IN THE KEEGAN AREA. ICE WAS ALSO IN MOTION ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM OXBOW...TO WASHBURN...PRESQUE ISLE AND BEYOND. INCREASING RIVER FLOWS APPEAR TO HAVE FLUSHED THE ICE CLEAR OF THE CARIBOU DAM AND THROUGH FORT FAIRFIELD. ...IN CONCLUSION... THE COMBINATION OF A STILL SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK IN THE PROTECTED AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE...RECORD HIGH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...ABOVE NORMAL GROUND WATER LEVELS...AND ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOWS INDICATE AN ABOVE NORMAL THREAT OF FLOODING. DUE TO ELEVATED RIVER FLOWS FLUSHING A MAJORITY OF RIVER ICE DOWNSTREAM AND OUT OF THE SERVICE AREA...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE JAM FLOODING IS JUDGED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU ON FRIDAY MAY 2. $$ MAT EOF