BOF 000 FGUS71 KCAR 201423 ESFCAR MEZ001>006-010-011-029>032-302300- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1000 AM EDT MON APR 20 2009 ...WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... THIS IS THE EIGHTH WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR 2009...ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU...MAINE. THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF IS NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING HAS ENDED. ...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE... WARM TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN APRIL HAVE GIVEN WAY TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS MID MONTH. THE REGIONS SPRING GUSH OF RAIN/SNOWMELT RUNOFF TOOK PLACE OVER THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL...FLUSHING RIVER ICE THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEMS BY MID MONTH. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DOUSE THE DOWNEAST WITH 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEK...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS CALLING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TERM TO GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE MID TERM AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT... ...SNOW DEPTH... SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM JUST TRACE AMOUNTS FROM BANGOR DOWNEAST...6 TO AS MUCH AS 18 INCHES IN THE SHELTERED REGIONS OF THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN AND THE MOOSEHEAD REGION...AND STILL AS MUCH AS 24 INCHES IN THE AROOSTOOK BASIN AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE ST. JOHN. THE AGRICULTURAL ROUTE 1 CORRIDOR WAS ALL BUT SNOW FREE AWAY FROM FORESTED PATCHES. THESE READINGS WERE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MOOSEHEAD REGION AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH. ...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT... SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE NIL IN THE BANGOR THROUGH DOWNEAST. THE ST. CROIX BASIN HELD AROUND 2 INCHES OF WATER...WHILE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER WAS HELD IN THE PISCATAQUIS AND AROOSTOOK BASINS...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE ST. JOHN. ...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS... DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RUNOFF...STORAGE IN THE TWO MAJOR NORTHERN MAINE STORAGE BASINS...THE PENOBSCOT WATERSHED AND THE ST. CROIX RIVER WATERSHED HAD FALLEN TO NEAR 25 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. GROUND WATER LEVELS AT THE REGIONS WATER MONITORING STATIONS WERE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WELL IN MILLINOCKET...WHICH WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE PALMER INDEX AND A SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATE MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... RIVER LEVELS WERE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND FALLING. RIVER ICE MOVEMENT WAS NOTED DURING THE FIRST 2 WEEKS OF APRIL...WITH SEVERAL PERSISTENT ICE JAMS ON THE AROOSTOOK AND ST. JOHN RIVERS FROM THE 5TH THROUGH THE 11TH. FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN MASARDIS...FORT FAIRFIELD...MATTAWAMKEAG...WASHBURN AND VAN BUREN. ALL RIVERS ARE NOW FREE OF ICE. ...IN CONCLUSION... BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL. SNOW REMAINS A CONCERN IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND 25 PERCENT STORAGE IS AVAILABLE. WITH ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER ON TAP THIS WEEK...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER AND STREAM RISES IN THE NEAR TERM. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER...RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING. IF REQUIRED...THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE ON OR ABOUT MAY 1. $$ MAT EOF