BOF
000
FXUS61 KGYX 121423
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1023 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST THOUGH MID 
WEEK...RESULTING IN A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM...CRESTING OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD TRENDS
AND TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. 

CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN TWO STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL SYSTEMS...ONE SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE OTHER OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE HIGH. THE
1200 UTC SOUNDINGS TO THE SOUTH SHOW THE MOISTURE AT THE CIRRUS
LEVELS...AS WELL AS AN INVERSION (MARINE BASED) NEAR 2000 FEET.

THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS REMAIN DRY...EVEN DOWN THROUGH
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK. WHILE MOISTURE MAY DEVELOP UNDER THE MARINE
INVERSION ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON (AS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING)...WOULD
EXPECT THE LOWEST LEVELS TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION TO
GET THIS FAR NORTH. 

WITH THIS IN MIND...THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN WAS REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE THICKENING CIRRUS...INCLUDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES TODAY. ELSEWHERE...BASED ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CIRRUS
INCLUDED PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND NEAR THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ON TARGET AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND
WILL TEND TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
USED BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR 
TEMPERATURES/WINDS AND BLEND OF MAV/CURRENT FORECAST FOR POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE DRY AT THE ONSET...SO WE WILL CONTINUE A THEME OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AS A FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
ALLOW FOR POPS TO LOWER AFTER THE FROPA FRIDAY MORNING. 

PIECES OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS 
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE
KPSM. MOISTURE SPREADING OUT UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION COULD 
FORM AT KPSM THIS AFTERNOON (AS IT IS NOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS). THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...UNTIL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH. 

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SEAS ARE COMING UP A BIT FASTER THAN
FORECAST AS THE FAVORABLE FETCH CONTINUES. THE BEST GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GALE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH OCEAN STORM
SPINNING ITS WHEELS OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BECOME DRY...AS THE LAST SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN OCCURRED MORE THAN A WEEK AGO. THIS IS ALLOWING DEAD FUELS TO
BECOME VERY DRY...AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR 30 PERCENT.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO BE MET TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING FOR LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN GUSTY. THE WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...AND HUMIDITIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. WILL COORDINATE
WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...AS THERE IS A CHANCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS COULD BE MET DESPITE THE RAPID GREEN UP.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES
MARINE...HAYES
FIRE WEATHER...HAYES





EOF