BOF 000 FXUS61 KGYX 091424 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 924 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH EVEN THE MOUNTAINS BREAKING INTO THE 60S. WARMER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER ESPECIALLY IN MID COAST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK CD FNT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY WITH NO PRCP EXPECTED WITH LACK OF MUCH MOISTURE OR UPR LVL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE FNT LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRES FORMS TO OUR S. THE HIGH STRETCHES ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES THRU SATURDAY NGT AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES TO OUR S. THE UPR LVL FLOW WILL DICTATE HOW FAR N THE SFC LOW CAN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC LOW IS TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW OFF THE E COAST WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS ON N OF THE CUTOFF LOW. IF THE UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS FURTHER N THEN THE SFC LOW WILL DO THE SAME AND THIS COULD SPREAD CLOUDS...PRCP AND INCREASING E OR NE WINDS INTO THE REGION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TRYING TO KEEP THE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO OUR S TO KEEP US DRY. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THIS SCENARIO WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SURROUNDING FCST OFFICES. USED THE GFS40 AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. NORMALLY WOULD USE GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER USED GFS40 FOR POP AND QPF FCSTS WHICH ARE MUCH LWR. APPEARS CLIMATOLOGY IS AFFECTING THE GMOS FCST WHICH BRINGS CHC OF PRCP INTO THE REGION DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST DETAILS THE GMOS WAS USED WITH A FEW TWEAKS. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...GENERALLY VFR AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES WITH A WEAK DRY CD FNT MOVING THRU EARLY TUESDAY AND SFC LOW STAYING TO OUR S WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFKIT SUGGESTING GUSTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. BAYS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BLO SCA LEVELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK CD FNT MOVES THRU EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES. SFC LOW TO OUR S STRENGTHENS WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLIDES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING NE WIND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS BUILDING SEAS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N THE LOW PUSHES CONDITIONS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...WHEELER EOF