BOF 000 FXUS61 KGYX 191024 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 624 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT. LOOK FOR SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 620 AM...AFTER FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...EXPECTING A SUNNY DAY WITH N WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SEA BREEZE WILL KICK IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT PROBABLY TOO LATE TO MOVE MUCH INLAND TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S CWA WIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO THU. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD RAD COOLING NIGHT...DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE SHORTEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE SHELTERED SPOTS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FROST AS WELL IN THE MOUNTAIN VLYS. THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE SHORT NIGHT...AND THE TENDENCY TOWARD FOG PRIOR TO FROSTING...WITH TDS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY ON THU...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NWP IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A COUPLE THINGS FOR THE CWFA IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FIRST...THIS WILL ALLOW HEAT DOME TO BUILD EWD THRU THE PERIOD. WE/LL BE ON THE FRINGE AT FIRST...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. WITH TIME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND MID LVL TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL TO TEMPS. SECOND...THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA NEAR THE TRANSITION ZONE OF AIR MASSES. AS RIDGE BUILDS EWD WITH TIME AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN...S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW...AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE TOP. ANY OF THESE COULD BRING A CHC OF SHRA OR TSTMS...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THESE IS POORLY HANDLED BY GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ONE OR TWO MAY TRY AND BRUSH THE CWFA LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL PUSH THRU THE AREA...AS THEY BATTLE BUILDING HEIGHTS. POSSIBLY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/WV WILL WORK TOWARDS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS MOST DAYS NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS FOR DRIER CONDITIONS THAN RECENT WEEKS. IN ADDITION...WITH HEAT BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND WNW FLOW ALOFT...WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SUCH ACTIVITY IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLEB/KHIE/KCON...AND WILL PERSIST THRU ABOUT 12Z. LOOKS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AT THIS SAME TERMINALS TONIGHT/ OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. LONG TERM...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL...BUT SCT MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SHRA/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WATERS WILL BE QUIET AS SEAS/WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU THURSDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT PROLONGED S TO SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... EOF