BOF
000
FXUS61 KCAR 131556
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1156 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE
LATER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY. COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH AN OCEAN LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. WILL HAVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH...TO
THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID 60S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PRIMARY FOCUS IS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT. HAVE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR POP AND
SKY COVER NUMBERS AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY. FOR WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL US GMOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPPER TROF MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST LATER IN DAY AND PERSISTS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECT TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. HAVE INITIALIZED THIS PERIOD WITH GMOS.
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO BETTER FIT POPS. HAVE
ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO GMOS.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TNGT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU FOLLOW BY AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED WITH A 50/50 MODEL BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND THE GFS40 FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WIND
MODEL CONTINUE TO OVER FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WITH RELATIVELY COLD
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...SO WILL REDUCE MODEL
COMBINATION WIND SPEEDS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL USE GMOS WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE FIELD
WILL BE FROM LONGER PERIOD WAVE FROM OUTSIDE WATERS WITH LIGHT
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WNA NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST 
AREAS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KHW/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS




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