BOF 000 FXUS61 KBTV 101948 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 348 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OF VERMONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN SUNNIER AND MILDER DURING THIS PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 207 PM EDT SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY HIGH/THIN CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS LEAVING GENERALLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO COOLER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED BETTER OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 207 PM EDT SATURDAY...CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER CONDS. PER SLIGHTLY MILDER MID LVL/850 HPA TEMPS AND AMPLE BNDRY LYR MIXING MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV TODAY/S READINGS UNDER DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. THEREAFTER...LATEST OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS HAVE MAINTAINED OVERALL CONSISTENCY IN SUPPRESSING EARLY WEEK SYSTEM SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE PER LAST NIGHT/S EURO SOLN AND CONTINUED SEMI-PERMANENT DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO WRN EUROPE. THUS WILL OPT LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHC...MAINLY FOR FAR SRN VT ZONES ONLY...KEEPING REMAINDER OF FA DRY. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESP CENTRAL/SERN VT. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850 HPA WIND/MOISTURE FIELDS...AND WHILE CONDS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN DRY IN THESE AREAS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BY MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING MARITIME FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. THUS READINGS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN COUNTERPARTS ACROSS NW VT/NRN NY WHERE MORE SUN...DEEPER BNDRY LYR MIXING AND MILDER MID LVL TEMPS EXIST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE BELOW GMOS POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. GFS MODEL SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AS IT APPROACHES A STRONG UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH GMOS POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE BELOW GMOS POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE LOWERED THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SCATTERED CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...BUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH EOF