BOF
000
FXUS61 KBTV 100302
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1002 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO 
TOMORROW MORNING WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
THEN REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 942 PM EST MONDAY...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
AND A LIGHT BREEZE ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH
TONIGHT. THE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND OF SLOWLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES...AND THUS HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPS BY A
GOOD 5-7 DEGREES...EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN ONTARIO HAVE ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 12 DEG F FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS. THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT LOWER 40S IN THE DACKS AND THE NEK OF
VT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH CLDS WORKING ACROSS THE CWA...SOME FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FROM A WEAK CD FRNT CURRENT PUSHING
EAST THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION. MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N
OF THE CWA AND WILL NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FOR THE AREA OVERNGT.
LACK OF PRECIP AIDED BY STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH....BLOCKING
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF/SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM EST MONDAY...BY TUESDAY MORNING ANY REMNANTS OF WK 
FROPA WILL CLR THE CWA TO THE S AND E. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGE
TO BUILD E OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. THIS WILL SET
UP A NICE STRETCH OF WX THRU WED NGT W/ TEMPS AT OR JUST BLW
NORMAL DUE TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FROM
CANADA. THE SET UP OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NE WILL BLOCK REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA DURING THIS TIME. OUTER SHIELD OF CLDS MAY
REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT...BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 219 PM EST MONDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL/DRY EXTENDED FCST 
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. AT 12Z THURSDAY...A LARGE REGION OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NERN CONUS...WITH 1000-500MB RH
VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NEAR SFC HIGH PRESSURE...AND GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS NEAR 50F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES +2 TO
+3C. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD MODERATE SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL - GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY 
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY SHIFT EWD ACROSS 
NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. DO NOT FORESEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE 
AVAILABLE TO THIS FEATURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.75 IN. 
THUS...WOULD EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND GENERALLY LIGHT. IN ADDITION TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...HAVE INDICATED POPS OF 30-40 PERCENT WITH THIS
PACKAGE FOR THE TIME PERIOD 18Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD...WITH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE
MID NOVEMBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
MODERATE SOUTH TO SW WINDS...10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THRU 04Z AT KMSS BUT HAS AND WL CONT TO DIMINSH ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING. AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WILL
SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WINDS BECMG NWLY OVERNIGHT
WITH FROPA...BETWEEN 04-08Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH ASSOCIATED CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY. ANY CLOUDS IN
5-8 KFT RANGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. RESIDUAL SCT-BKN150 CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST PER NAM
MODEL RH FIELDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
AND KEEPS LOW PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...AMF/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/SLW





EOF