BOF 000 FXUS61 KBTV 191724 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 124 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1043 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VALLEY FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT HAS BURNED OFF. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. FORECAST OF SUNNY SKIES TODAY STILL LO0KS GOOD. SO...JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME FOG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT AND THIS SHOULD LAST FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL EXIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN RIGHT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AREA. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING TEMPERATURES...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT BREAKS DOWN INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY...AND REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. WARM NIGHTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW MIN TEMPS MAKING IT MUGGY AS WELL. IN REGARDS TO PRECIP POTENTIAL...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FAST WESTERLIES JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY TOO FAR OUT TO TIME SUCH SMALL FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY...LOWERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 18Z THURS...AS SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES OUR WX. CRNT OBS AND VIS SATL PICS SHOW SUNNY SKIES WITH NW TO NE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...AS SFC HIGH PRES IS JUST CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES ANTICIPATED. EXPECT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS AT RUTLAND FROM THE SE. OTHERWISE...HAVE TEMPO IN BRIEF MVFR IN BR AT SLK/MPV FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THINKING AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY WL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AS BL IS DRIER AND TEMPS WL PROBABLY NOT REACH CROSS VALUES TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLR SKIES CONTINUING. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRNT. THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...BUT MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WL BE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS BTWN 17Z-23Z EACH DAY. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE AND SOME RAIN OCCURS...PATCHY FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...TABER EOF