BOF 000 FXUS61 KBOX 131844 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 244 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG OCEAN STORM WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK SOUTH NEW ENGLAND FRI...POSSIBLY GRAZING THE AREA WITH WET WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WIND ADVY EXPIRED. NO CLOSING STMT. WHILE WIND STILL MARGINAL CRITERIA AT ACK VCNTY 2PM...JUST NOT GOING TO CHASE THIS ANYMORE NOW THAT ITS COMING DOWN. SIMPLIFYING. BASE MESSAGE HAS POSTED. THANKS TO SKYWARN FOR WEBENTRY REPORTS. WE HAVE SEE THESE. PNSBOX POSTED AND MAY RECEIVE A 5PM UPDATE WITH WEBENTRY. GRIDS FROM LATE THIS MORNING ARE VERY CLOSE. NEW WIND GUSTS POSTING ATTM IN PT AND CLICK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. INCREDIBLE TOOL APPLICATION FOR 18Z TODAY BASED ON 12Z NAM MXG HTS FROM OUR 18Z FCST TEMPS AND 12Z/13 USE OF THE GFS MXG ALGORITHM. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT... PLEASANT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FROST ACROSS NORTHERN CT/WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT NO FROST ADVISORY. JUST NO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY... GEM OF A DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE COOLING AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE /NORTH AND WEST OF I95 IN RI AND MA/ TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO 70-75F. THIS WILL BE 3-5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z/13 GFS MAV MOS TEMPS. DID NOT GO FOR 78 AT BDL DUE TO S WIND AND TRIMMED THE GFS MAV MOS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGS ALONG COASTAL MASS DUE TO E WIND OFF UPPER 40S SST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT... CLOUDS FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. POPS INCREASED SLIGHTLY N AND W OF ORH PER 09Z SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 BUT BY NO MEANS ANY KIND OF LOCK. WE SAW MINOR QPF FROM UKMET TOO. THIS COULD BE SPRINKLES NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY. 12Z/13 GFS MAV MOS 3HRLY TEMPS BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS GFS MINS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD CVR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THU...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF US FRI AND FRI NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MEAN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW JUST OUTSIDE OF 40N/70W WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER CONTINUES TREND OF THIS ONE SKIRTING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...LIKE THE PAST TWO STORMS...TO PERHAPS JUST GRAZE THE SOUTH COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS. FOR NOW...HAVE CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WITH JUST CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. ALL LONG TERM MODELS POINT TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN SLOWLY SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON. IN GENERAL...THIS WOULD MEAN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE GFS WOULD IMPLY THAT SUNDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS OUT FROM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF HAD THAT SAME FEATURE BUT NO LONGER DOES. IN FACT...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...THERE COULD BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS. WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR SAT...SUN...AND MON. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NORTHEAST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTANT OCEAN STORM MOVES FURTHER AWAY TONIGHT. TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WE PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. WED NIGHT...VFR. POSSIBLE FOG PATCHES SE MASS WHERE ITS CLEAR LONGEST AND SHALLOW LAYER MARINE MOISTURE FM THE WED DAYLIGHT HOURS CAUSES RELATIVELY HEAVY DEW. OUTLOOK... THU THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR. MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON... FRI AND FRI NIGHT IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS... AND MAINLY NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ON SAT. && .MARINE... UPDATED MARINE HEADLINES TO HOLD FOR 1 HR. GALE SE CORNER VCNTY ACK AND SCA ELSEWHERE THIS AFTN. TONIGHT...LESSENING WIND ALONG WITH SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS BUT SCA CONTS OPEN WATERS PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER. WED...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LEFTOVER NE SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA OCEAN WATERS. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THU...WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS MAINLY EAST OF CAPE COD. FRI...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT FRI NIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERNMOST WATERS. SAT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN SW AND WILL STILL BE QUITE GUSTY. LIGHT WINDS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET MOST WATERS...EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FEET STILL LINGERING ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. && .FIRE WEATHER... S NH PREFERRED NO WARNING. WE ISSUED WARNING FOR PTNS OF MASS ESSENTIALLY FROM NEAR THE CT RVR TO THE I495. AT OR NEAR CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SPLASHOVER THIS TUESDAY EVENING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WITH A NEAR 1 FT SURGE BUT SLOWLY SETTLING SEAS OF 6-12 FEET. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ003>005- 010>012-026. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232>235-254- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 231-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA NEAR TERM...DRAG 235 SHORT TERM...DRAG/NOCERA LONG TERM...GAF AVIATION...DRAG/FRANK/GAF 235 MARINE...DRAG/NOCERA/GAF 235 FIRE WEATHER...DRAG 235 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG 235 EOF