BOF 000 FXUS61 KBOX 092026 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 325 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES. EXPECT GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THOUGH MUCH OF IT IS THIN AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...THERE SHOULD BE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CT RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION TUE MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF IDA. HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED DURING LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE N/NE FLOW BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO REGION. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WE RELIED LARGELY ON GEFS MEAN FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REMNANTS OF IDA WILL EVOLVE INTO LARGE COASTAL STORM OFF SE US COAST BUT NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRI WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING KEEPING ANY RAIN SOUTH OF THE COAST AS SFC RIDGING IN CONTROL. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND FRI AS UKMET TRIES TO BRING COASTAL STORM NWD WITH RAIN NEXT WEEKEND...AND ECMWF HAS INVERTED TROF POKING NWD TOWARD SNE WITH RAIN SAT NGT/SUN. DAILIES... TUE NIGHT-WED...WE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHC POPS TO BID-ACK LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NE FLOW. THICK BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION AND ESPECIALLY S COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THEN CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. BLENDED MILDER MET GUIDANCE WITH MAV FOR WED MAXES. WED NIGHT-THU...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AND MOSUNNY DAY AS STRONG SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER SNE FROM THE NORTH. COLD WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WITH EXCELLENT RADATIONAL COOLING BUT NE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL SECTIONS A BIT MILDER. MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED. FRI...HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS UKMET/ECMWF BECOME WET WHILE GFS KEEPS COASTAL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST WITH JUST A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE FOLLOWED GEFS MEAN FOR NOW WHICH SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH FROPA LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SUN/MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MILD DAY POSSIBLE SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MORE SEASONABLE FOR SUN/MON. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON 20-25KT S/SW WIND GUSTS THROUGH 22Z FOR ALL BUT KACK BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH 21-23Z. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 15KFT THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY GROUND FOG 06Z-12Z TUE... ESPECIALLY NEAR CT RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. CONFIDENT ON COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 12Z-16Z TUE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO N/NE. VFR CIGS AOA 8KFT. KBOS TAF...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEEING GUSTS 28-30KT AT BLUE HILL /KMQE/ SO THERE IS ALSO LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING BRIEF 30KT GUSTS. KBOX WSR-88D SHOWS 20-25KT SW WINDS UP TO 2KFT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AOA 8KFT THROUGH 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 15Z TUE AND BECOME N AFTER 18Z TUE. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID/HIGH CLOUDS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... THROUGH TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20KT NEAR SHORE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE...AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FT...DUE TO RESPONSE FROM WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. TUE...WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE DURING MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WATERS BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COASTAL STORM TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL RESULT IN NE FLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT A PERIOD OF SCA NE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRI. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNDERCUT WNAWAVE GUIDANCE AS GFS WINDS ARE TOO STRONG. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/JWD MARINE...KJC/JWD EOF